Industry measurement machine: - Daily need per person and annual turnover in a country.
By: Dr Rajeev Kumar
rtycoon@gmail.com +919654909233
An assumed industry size of deferent product and service trade lines can be measured by proportionate petroleum consumption by that particular trade and annual energy consumption in country. Industry volume of an automobile industry can be measured on the same method of total fuel consumed by auto segment in country. Expected capital return from a transporter on a commercial vehicle is five years. One year consumable petroleum expense is equal to 5th part of price of an automobile price. The spares parts industry, motor insurance industry and such service industries related with automobile can also be measured with this standard in ratio of their involvement. Overall involvement can be 33% as vehicle cost, 33% on consumable fuel and rest 34% on maintenance including spares, insurance, taxes, staff and miscellaneous. It means the automobiles price is 33 percent of total revenue collection to transporter in 5 years. This is equal to assumed petroleum consumption in country on vehicles segment.
Similarly the agriculture pump set, spare, fertilizer, seed, harvesting and related trade size can be measured from the assumed consumption ratio of petroleum by pump set, harvesting tractor etc. in a country. A farmer expense 10% of his investment of a seasoned crop on seeds, 25% on labor, 25% on fertilizer, 10% on watering, 15% on farming and rest 15% on screening, marketing and miscellaneous etc. The ratio of watering and consumable fule shall decide the market size of agriculture pump sets industry. This shall also decide the total crop production of a country and vice-versa. They can be correlated with each other. Percentage sharing by agriculture in country GDP shall disclose the percentage industry size of the country on other line of business such as fashion, textiles, garments, tourism, medicines construction, mining, exports, finance, education, electric, electronics, media, communication, utensils etc.
An Investor can benchmark their business prospects and predict their possible future output from a time value of money. They may decide the size of their market segment. It may rural, town, state, country, continent or world-wide market. According to requirement of target consumer, an overall per capita consumption of goods can be predicted. The information’s available in this theory is enough to prepare a table with applicable parameters. One can scientifically prepare the result market size, by entering figures in applied parameters.
US Dollar 1 is equal to Indian Rupees 56 in January 2012. 100 thousand is equal to 1 lac and 10 million is equal to 1 crore in India. We have depicted the subject on assumed possible ratio in Indian market from our individual observation. These ratios may vary. The structure is expected, overall resemble with the real market. I have tried to enclose below, some segments like: foods, energy, construction etc.
Industry in a country has dependable items like: agricultural goods, fuel and electricity. And some undependable items like: home appliances; IT& telecommunication; travel; housing; investment; education & consultancy etc. Export of minerals, mines and raw material & dependable items are loss of remunerations of the skills of citizen. Export of finished goods and undependable items are the add-on payment of skills of citizen.
Daily expanse of Rs 1 by an Indian is equal to 1 x 365 x 120 crore = Rs 43800 crore or approx Rs 44K Crore Rs annual. Similarly daily consumption of 1 KG is equal to 44000 Crore KG or 44 crore MT or 4400 Lac MT annual by India.
Normal monthly requirement in a family of 5 members can give per person daily requirement of the dependable as well as undependable items. This will further provide us the annual consumption volume and turnover of deferent items in a country.
Industry size measurement machine
Per person daily requirement Vs annual transaction data of India
Items Monthly requirement to a family of 5 members Daily requirement to a family Daily requirement to an individual Expected price of item Daily expanse by an individual Annual volume turnover in India Annual cash turnover in India
In Kilogram In gram In gram In Rupee In Rupee In lac M. Ton In Rupee
Rice 30 1000 200 gm 25 5 Rs 880 220000 crore Rs
Wheat 30 1000 200 25 5 Rs 880 220000 crore Rs
Pulse 10 333 66 60 4 Rs 280 180000 crore Rs
Vegetable 45 1500 300 20 6 Rs 1300 260000 crore Rs
Potato& onion 40 1300 266 10 2.66 Rs 91 91000 crore Rs
Milk 45 1500 300 25 7.5 Rs 1300 330000 crore Rs
Cloth 5 170 33 150 5 Rs 140 220000 crore Rs
Miscellaneous 10 333 66 60 4 Rs 280 180000 crore Rs
Spice & oil 10 333 66 125 8.2 Rs 290 360000 crore Rs
Total Food 225 7500 1500 (Ave. is 47/1.5 =32.5) 32.5 47.33 Rs 6600 2100000 crore Rs
Petroleum oil 45 1500 300 50 15 Rs 1300 660000 crore Rs
LPG gas 10 (50% of 20 Kg) 333 66 30 2 Rs 280 88000 crore Rs
Electricity 3 1.3 Rs 14000 crore unit 55000 crore Rs
Details Of Oil, Snacks And Spices
Grain 1 33 6 60 0.36 Rs 26 15 000 crore Rs
Sunflower oil 2 66 12 150 2 Rs 53 88000 crore Rs
Mustard oil 3 100 20 80 106 Rs 88 70000 crore Rs
Spices 2 66 12 150 2 Rs 53 88000 crore Rs
Corn 1 33 6 150 1 Rs 26 44000 crore Rs
Other 1 33 6 200 1.2 Rs 26 53000 crore Rs
Total Spices & Oil 10 333 66 (Ave. is 8.2/0.066=125) 125 8.2 Rs 290 360000 crore Rs
Normal family of 5 members in India is consuming monthly 60 Kg rice & wheat; 10 Kg pulse; 10 Kg spice, oil aaaa7 snack; 45 Kg vegetable; 40 Kg Potato & onion; 45 Kg Milk; 15 Kg cotton and others. Per person total requirement 225 Kg monthly or 7.5 Kg Daily for 5 members and only 1.5 Kg daily agriculture goods. Calculating at the average price of agriculture goods as Rs 33 per Kg then annual expanse on food & cloth in India is 1.5 x 33 x 44K Crore = Rs 22 Lac Crore only.
30% of expanse on food and cloth i.e. Rs 6.6 Lac Crore ( 1300 Lac MT @ Rs 50 Per Kg) can be considered as overall annual petroleum expanse including subsidy, refining & cost of crude oil.
Monthly LPG consumption in a normal family of 5 members is Rs 600 only (20 Kg @ Rs 30 per Kg). I.e. monthly Rs 120 per person or daily Rs 4 per person. This is daily Rs 2 only or annually Rs 88000 Crore expanse on LPG if overall LPG consumption in India is 50% of expected consumption on cooking purpose.
Per person assumed average monthly electricity consumption by 10 crore Indians is Rs 120 only. And per person average consumption by rest 110 Crore Indian is monthly Rs 30 only (@ monthly Rs 150 per family). Which is Rs 1200 +Rs 3300 = Rs 4500 Crore monthly or Rs 55000 Crore Yearly. Hence per person daily consumption of electricity in India is just Rs 1.3 only.
Area of India is approx 32 Lac Sq KM. i.e. approx 247 x 32 Lac = 75 Crore acre or 0.6 acre land per Indian. 0.12 acre crop production per person if assuming that, only 20% land is cropped at present. This is adequate 600 Kg per person production against only 540 Kg yearly requirement @ 5000 Kg per acre yearly production.
If we suppose the distribution of Indian geography in following proportion then:-
No Area Percent a B c D E
Lac Sq KM % Lac KM / %
A 16 50 City River Mountain Sanctuary Barren Forest
1/6 2/6 4/12 2/6 6/18
B 6 19 Misused Unused Unplanned Reserve Man/God Peril
1/3 1/3 2/6 1/3 1.3/4
C 4 12 Forest Plant Tree Industry Miscellaneous
0.5/1.5 0.5/1.5 1/3 0.5/1.5 1.5/4
D 6 19 Serial Crops Oil & Spice Grocery
4/13 1/3 1/3
- India has total agriculture land = B + Cb + Ce + D = 44%
- India has currently agriculture crop occupied land = D = 19%
- India has total forest area = Ac + Ad + Ae + Bb + Bc + Bd + Be + Ca + Cb + Cc = 58%
- India has currently tree sourcing fruits = Ac + Ae (unorganized) + Ca + Cb + Cc (Organized) = 36%
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